Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Weekly Commentary (Updated June 22, 2023): Supporting actor (limited) will have 209 contenders (compared to 64 last year) such as Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”) and Murray Bartlett (“Welcome to Chippendales”) while supporting actress (limited) has 177 powerhouses. Those categories will have seven nominees each.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
Justin Theroux surprised pundits by submitting in the supporting category instead of lead alongside his co-star Woody Harrelson for “White House Plumbers.” As a consistent standout in reviews from critics, even those who were lesser on the series overall, this might be the smart move to nab himself recognition.
I’m also curious to see how many actors make it from two front-running Netflix series — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” and “Beef.” Richard Jenkins from the former seems safe for a nom, but Rodney Burford Jr’s episode was heartbreaking. Watch out for him to join the lineup in lieu of two “Beef” guys — Joseph Lee and Young Mazino.
I’d also keep an eye on Liev Schreiber to surprise for “A Small Light.”
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Paul Walter Hauser — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- Richard Jenkins — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Ray Liotta — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- Jesse Plemons — “Love & Death” (HBO)
- Domhnall Gleeson — “The Patient” (Hulu)
- Justin Theroux — “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
- Rodney Burford Jr. — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
Next in Line
- Murray Bartlett — “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
- Young Mazino — “Beef” (Netflix)
- Joseph Lee — “Beef” (Netflix)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Liev Schreiber — “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
- Greg Kinnear — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- Bowen Yang — “Fire Island” (Hulu)
- Walton Goggins — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
- Nikolaj Coster-Waldau — “The Last Thing He Told Me” (Apple TV+)
- David Alan Grier — “The Patient” (Hulu)
- Hayden Christiansen — “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
- Ciarán Hinds — “The English” (Prime Video)
- Tom Pelphrey — “Love & Death” (HBO)
- Russell Hornsby — “Mike” (Hulu)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
- Paul Walter Hauser — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- Greg Kinnear — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- Ray Liotta — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- Murray Bartlett — “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- Daveed Diggs — “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- Judd Hirsch — “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- Tobey Maguire — “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- Edward Norton — “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- Matthew Rhys — “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- Forest Whitaker — “Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
- Robert Pine — “Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+)
- Cornelius Smith Jr. — “Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+)
- Robert Pine — “Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+)
- Nikolaj Coster-Waldau — “The Last Thing He Told Me” (Apple TV+)
- Zachary Shadrin — “Little America” (Apple TV+)
- Dawnn Lewis — “Blackjack Christmas” (BET+)
- Patrick Dempsey — “Disenchanted” (Disney+)
- Matt Lintz — “Ms. Marvel” (Disney+)
- Mohan Kapur — “Ms. Marvel” (Disney+)
- Saagar Shaikh — “Ms. Marvel” (Disney+)
- Rish Shah — “Ms. Marvel” (Disney+)
- Hayden Christiansen — “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
- Rupert Friend — “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
- Kumail Nanjiani — “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
- Wendell Pierce — “Accused” (Fox)
- Christian Slater — “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
- Diego Boneta — “Father of the Bride” (HBO)
- Vincent Macaigne — “Irma Vep” (HBO)
- Patrick Fugit — “Love & Death” (HBO)
- Tom Pelphrey — “Love & Death” (HBO)
- Jesse Plemons — “Love & Death” (HBO)
- Domhnall Gleeson — “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
- Justin Theroux — “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
- Russell Hornsby — “Mike” (Hulu)
- Chris Cooper — “Boston Strangler” (Hulu)
- David Dastmalchian — “Boston Strangler” (Hulu)
- Alessandro Nivola — “Boston Strangler” (Hulu)
- Bowen Yang — “Fire Island” (Hulu)
- Domhnall Gleeson — “The Patient” (Hulu)
- David Alan Grier — “The Patient” (Hulu)
- Quentin Plair — “Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu)
- Murray Bartlett — “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
- Quentin Plair — “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
- Fred Armisen — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Nicholas Braun — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- August Diehl — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Joe Cole — “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
- Liev Schreiber — “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
- David Choe — “Beef” (Netflix)
- Joseph Lee — “Beef” (Netflix)
- Young Mazino — “Beef” (Netflix)
- Eric André — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Ismael Cruz Córdova — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Sebastian Roche — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Martin Starr — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Glynn Turman — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Michael Beach — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Shaun J. Brown — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Rodney Burford Jr. — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Colby French — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Richard Jenkins — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Keith David — “From Scratch” (Netflix)
- Jai Courtney – “Kaleidoscope” (Netflix)
- Peter Mark Kendall – “Kaleidoscope” (Netflix)
- Rufus Sewell – “Kaleidoscope” (Netflix)
- Luke David Blumm — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Henry Hunter Hall — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Richard Kind — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Terry Kinney — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Joe Mantello — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Christopher McDonald — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Michael Nouri — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Lenny Henry — “The Witcher: Blood Origin” (Netflix)
- Rainn Wilson — “Jerry & Marge Go Large” (Paramount+)
- Alun Armstrong — “Tom Jones: Masterpiece” (PBS)
- Colin Hanks — “A Friend of the Family” (Peacock)
- Jake McDorman — “Mrs. Davis” (Peacock)
- Sebastian Chacon — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Will Harrison — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Timothy Olyphant — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Josh Whitehouse — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Tom Wright — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Michael Chernus — “Dead Ringers” (Prime Video)
- Ciarán Hinds — “The English” (Prime Video)
- Cheech Marin — “Shotgun Wedding” (Prime Video)
- Damson Idris — “Swarm” (Prime Video)
- Rainn Wilson — “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel)
- Walton Goggins — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
- Tim Blake Nelson — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
- Steve Zahn — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
- Garrett Dillahunt — “Ghosts of Beirut” (Showtime)
** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Murray Bartlett as Armond in “The White Lotus” (HBO) — Season 1
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.