Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: June 8, 2023
2023 Tony Predictions:
Best Actress in a Play
Weekly Commentary: Does anyone remember when Jodie Comer won the Emmy award in a stunning upset for “Killing Eve” in 2019? Could we see a similar outcome at the Tonys as she faces off against Jessica Chastain?
Like the competition for lead actor in a play, the race for leading actress is neck-and-neck. All four performers in the category are doing deserving work, but in conversations with voters, it comes down to two starry candidates: Comer and Chastain.
Comer has the wow factor going for her: In “Prima Facie,” her solo performance is a master class of actorly technique, moving at a breakneck pace through multiple characters and harrowing events with an unerring control of pacing across the show’s 100-minute runtime. The play itself has heft, too, tackling urgent issues of violence against women and the inadequacy of the law’s response to it. The Emmy-winning actor also arrived on Broadway already having won an Olivier for her performance in the production.
Chastain’s performance in “A Doll’s House,” meanwhile, gets voters’ attention with the intensity of its focus and the rich emotional life she conveys despite, or perhaps because of, the production’s extraordinary physical constraints. The Oscar-winning actress spends almost the entirety of the play sitting in a single chair, facing the audience to give them full access to every fleeting feeling as her character arrives at the decision to take her first, faltering steps out of the confines of patriarchy.
Both actors have strong support, and each is discussed like she’s poised to win. At the Drama Desks, Chastain won for leading actress in a play and Comer won for solo performance (a category she also won at the Outer Critics). At the Tonys, give the barest of margins to Comer for the showier of the two achievements.
Gordon Cox’s Picks
Will win: Jodie Comer, “Prima Facie”
Could win: Jessica Chastain, “A Doll’s House”
Should win: Jessica Chastain, “A Doll’s House”
Should Have Been Nominated: Rachel Brosnahan, “The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window”
Clayton Davis’ Picks
Will win: Jessica Chastain, “A Doll’s House”
Could win: Jodie Comer, “Prima Facie”
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Tony Awards predictions in all categories.
The 76th Annual Tony Awards are scheduled for June 11, 2023, at the United Palace in New York City. It will air on CBS and Paramount+ and be produced by Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, with the latter also serving as the director.
And the Nominees Are:
- Jessica Chastain — “A Doll’s House” (Hudson Theatre)
- Jodie Comer — “Prima Facie” (Golden Theatre)
- Audra McDonald — “Ohio State Murders” (James Earl Jones Theatre)
- Jessica Hecht — “Summer, 1976” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)
All Eligible Shows and Performances (Unranked)
- Jessica Chastain — “A Doll’s House” (Hudson Theatre)
- Audra McDonald — “Ohio State Murders” (James Earl Jones Theatre)
- Zoe Wanamaker — “Pictures From Home” (Studio 54)
- Jodie Comer — “Prima Facie” (Golden Theatre)
- Rachel Brosnahan — “The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window” (James Earl Jones Theatre)
- Jessica Hechet — “Summer, 1976” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)
- Laura Linney — “Summer, 1976” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)
Tony Awards Predictions Categories
BEST MUSICAL | BEST PLAY | MUSICAL REVIVAL | PLAY REVIVAL | ACTOR (MUSICAL) | ACTOR (PLAY) | ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | ACTRESS (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY) | DIRECTOR (MUSICAL) | DIRECTOR (PLAY) | ORIGINAL SCORE | MUSICAL BOOK | CHOREOGRAPHY
About the Tony Awards
The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, better known as the Tony Awards, is given out annually by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League, recognizing excellence in live Broadway theatre. The ceremony, held annually in New York City, was founded by theatre producer and director Brock Pemberton and is named after Antoinette “Tony” Perry, an actress, producer and theatre director who was co-founder of the American Theatre Wing.