Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: June 8, 2023
Weekly Commentary: The Tonys may not look the same due to the WGA strike, but we can still celebrate the love of Broadway with potential history happening in more ways than one.
“Some Like It Hot,” which has music icon Mariah Carey as one of its producers, could provide a pathway to a potential upset for best musical, in the manner of “Avenue Q” over “Wicked” in 2004 or “Kinky Boots” over “Matilda the Musical” in 2013.
Its star, J. Harrison Ghee, and Alex Newell for “Shucked,” are the first openly nonbinary actors nominated and they look to become the first winners to boot.
Does anyone remember when Jodie Comer won the Emmy award in a stunning upset for “Killing Eve” in 2019? Could we see a similar outcome at the Tonys, with Comer winning for “Prima Facie” as she faces off against Jessica Chastain for “A Doll’s House?”
Check out all the final predictions below and on the individual predictions via the links.
The 76th Annual Tony Awards are scheduled for June 11, 2023, at the United Palace in New York City. It will air on CBS and Paramount+ and produced by Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, with the latter also serving as the director.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
-
Best Musical
Image Credit: Joan Marcus “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre) ***
“New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)
“Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre) -
Best Play
Image Credit: Joan Marcus “Ain’t No Mo’” (Belasco Theatre)
“Between Riverside and Crazy” (Hayes Theater)
“Cost of Living” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)
“Fat Ham” (American Airlines Theatre)
“Leopoldstadt” (Longacre Theatre) *** -
Best Musical Revival
Image Credit: Parade “Lerner & Loew’s Camelot” (Vivian Beaumont Theater – Lincoln Center Theater)
“Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre) ***
“Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)
“Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre) -
Best Play Revival
Image Credit: Courtesy of DKC/O&M and A Doll's House “August Wilson’s The Piano Lesson” (Barrymore Theatre)
“A Doll’s House” (Hudson Theatre) ***
“The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window” (James Earl Jones Theatre)
“Suzan Lori-Parks’ Topdog/Underdog” (Golden Theatre) -
Best Actor (Musical)
Image Credit: Marc J. Franklin Christian Borle
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)
J. Harrison Ghee ***
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)
Josh Groban
“Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)
Brian D’Arcy James
“Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)
Ben Platt
“Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)
Colton Ryan
“New York, New York” (St. James Theatre) -
Best Actor (Play)
Image Credit: Joan Marcus Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
“Topdog/Underdog” (Golden Theatre)
Corey Hawkins
“Topdog/Underdog” (Golden Theatre)
Sean Hayes
“Good Night, Oscar” (Belasco Theatre)
Stephen McKinley Henderson ***
“Between Riverside and Crazy” (Hayes Theater)
Wendell Pierce
“Death of a Salesman” (Hudson Theatre) -
Best Actress (Musical)
Image Credit: Joan Marcus Annaleigh Ashford
“Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)
Sara Bareilles
“Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)
Victoria Clark ***
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)
Lorna Courtney
“& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)
Micaela Diamond
“Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre) -
Best Actress (Play)
Image Credit: Helen Murray Jessica Chastain
“A Doll’s House” (Hudson Theatre)
Jodie Comer ***
“Prima Facie” (Golden Theatre)
Jessica Hecht
“Summer, 1976” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)
Audra McDonald
“Ohio State Murders” (James Earl Jones Theatre) -
Best Featured Actor (Musical)
Image Credit: Shucked Kevin Cahoon
“Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)
Justin Cooley
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)
Kevin Del Aguila
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)
Jordan Donica
“Lerner & Loewe’s Camelot” (Vivian Beaumont Theater – Lincoln Center Theater)
Alex Newell ***
“Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre) -
Best Featured Actor (Play)
Image Credit: Getty Jordan E. Cooper
“Ain’t No Mo’” (Belasco Theatre)
Arian Moayed
“A Doll’s House” (Hudson Theatre)
Samuel L. Jackson
“August Wilson’s The Piano Lesson” (Barrymore Theatre)
Brandon Uranowitz ***
“Leopoldstadt” (Longacre Theatre)
David Zayas
“Cost of Living” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre) -
Best Featured Actress (Musical)
Julia Lester
“Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)
Ruthie Ann Miles
“Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)
Bonnie Milligan ***
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)
NaTasha Yvette Williams
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)
Betsy Wolfe
“& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre) -
Best Featured Actress (Play)
Nikki Crawford ***
“Fat Ham” (American Airlines Theatre)
Crystal Lucas-Perry
“Ain’t No Mo’” (Belasco Theatre)
Miriam Silverman
“The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window” (James Earl Jones Theatre)
Katy Sullivan
“Cost of Living” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)
Kara Young
“Cost of Living” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre) -
Best Director (Musical)
Image Credit: Getty Images Michael Arden ***
“Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)
Lear deBessonet
“Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)
Casey Nicholaw
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)
Jack O’Brien
“Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)
Jessica Stone
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre) -
Best Director (Play)
Image Credit: Bruce Glikas/WireImage Saheem Ali
“Fat Ham” (American Airlines Theatre)
Jo Bonney
“Cost of Living” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)
Jamie Lloyd ***
“A Doll’s House” (Hudson Theatre)
Patrick Marber
“Leopoldstadt” (Longacre Theatre)
Stevie Walker-Webb
“Ain’t No Mo’” (Belasco Theatre)
Max Webster
“Life of Pi” (Gerald Schoenfeld Theatre) -
Best Musical Book
“& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)
David West Read
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre) ***
David Lindsay-Abaire
“New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)
David Thompson and Sharon Washington
“Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)
Robert Horn
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)
Matthew López, Amber Ruffin -
Best Original Score
“Almost Famous” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)
Tom Kitt, Cameron Crowe
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre) ***
Jeanine Tesori, David Lindsay-Abaire
“KPOP” (Circle in the Square Theatre)
Helen Park, Max Vernon
“Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)
Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)
Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman -
Best Choreography
Image Credit: Getty Images “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre)
Jennifer Weber
“New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)
Susan Stroman
“KPOP” (Circle in the Square Theatre)
Jennifer Weber
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre) ***
Casey Nicholaw
“Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)
Steven Hoggett -
Theatre Columns and Podcast Archives
Image Credit: Getty Awards Circuit Theatre Columns & News
- How Alex Newell, the Non-Binary and Gender Nonconforming Star of Broadway’s ‘Shucked,’ Decided to Compete for Supporting Actor at the Tonys
- Inside Broadway’s Emotional Closing Night of ‘The Phantom of the Opera’
- Inside Broadway’s Bifurcated Comeback
- Tectonic Theater Project Reveals Robust Slate of Projects Aimed for Broadway, Touring and International (EXCLUSIVE)
- Deirdre O’Connell’s Tony Award Hasn’t Changed Her Life — And She’s More Than Okay With That
- ‘The Lion King’ at 25: How the Iconic Broadway Show Makes Each Production Different Around the World
- How Award-Winning Musical ‘Kimberly Akimbo’ Is Growing Up to Broadway
- Variety’s 10 Broadway Stars to Watch: The Great White Way’s Bright New Talent
- Broadway Kicks Off Fall Season With High Hopes and Lingering Uncertainty
Stagecraft Podcast Archives
- Why Nathan Lane Says ‘Pictures From Home’ May Be His Last Broadway Show — And Why He’s Probably Kidding
- How Anthony Rapp Has Begun to Heal in His Fight Against Abuse in Hollywood
- How National Black Theatre is Making a New Home in Harlem — and on Broadway
- How Stephen McKinley Henderson Hears the Music in Playwrights
- Why Audra McDonald’s New Broadway Show Is Shocking Audiences
- How Josh Dela Cruz Brought Broadway to ‘Blue’s Clues’
- How to Produce a Museum of Broadway
- What Samuel L. Jackson Misses Most About Broadway
- Why the Creators of Broadway’s ‘Topdog/Underdog’ Think the Play Has a Superpower
- Why ‘Cost of Living’ Is on the Broadway Forefront
- How Patina Miller Made ‘Into the Woods’ Her Own
- Why Mary Rodgers Pushed to Make Her Memoir Meaner, Funnier and More Revealing About Her Life Among Broadway Greats
Tony Awards Predictions Categories
BEST MUSICAL | BEST PLAY | MUSICAL REVIVAL | PLAY REVIVAL | ACTOR (MUSICAL) | ACTOR (PLAY) | ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | ACTRESS (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY) | DIRECTOR (MUSICAL) | DIRECTOR (PLAY) | ORIGINAL SCORE | MUSICAL BOOK | CHOREOGRAPHY
About the Tony Awards
The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, better known as the Tony Awards, is given out annually by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League, recognizing excellence in live Broadway theatre. The ceremony, held annually in New York City, was founded by theatre producer and director Brock Pemberton and is named after Antoinette “Tony” Perry, an actress, producer and theatre director who was co-founder of the American Theatre Wing.