Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated: June 23, 2023): Directing (drama) has 214 submissions which will produce seven nominees.
The pivotal “Connor’s Wedding” episode from HBO’s “Succession” is sure to lead the way for helmer Mark Mylod, who lost out last year to “Squid Game.” His episode was submitted along with Andrij Parekh (“America Decides”) and Lorene Scafaria (“Living+”).
Toward the beginning of this year’s eligibility period (which started June 1, 2022), Netflix dropped the Vol. 2 installments of “Stranger Things.” Under new rules, these are considered “orphan” episodes in the eyes of awards eligibility. This prevents the show from submitting for the drama series category (which requires a minimum of six) or any main series acting categories. Only Dacre Montgomery was eligible to submit for guest drama actor.
Netflix and the creatives have focused on the two-hour and 19-minute finale, “The Piggyback,” submitting it to the Emmy Creative Arts races it was eligible for, along with the two main categories for directing and writing. It would break through despite not being eligible for drama series.
“The White Lotus,” which made its move from limited to drama this year, has put Mike White’s “Arrivederci” up for both writing and directing races.
HBO’s “House of the Dragon submitted four episodes including Miguel Sapochnik’s series premiere titled “The Heirs of the Dragon.”
HBO’s “The Last of Us” submitted only one episode for writing and directing, the emotional “Long, Long Time” by scribe Craig Mazin and helmer Peter Hoar.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
2022 category winner: “Squid Game” (Netflix) — Hwang Dong-hyuk, “Red Light, Green Light”
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Succession” (HBO) — Mark Mylod, “Connor’s Wedding”
- “The Last of Us” (HBO) — Peter Hoar, “Long, Long Time”
- “Succession” (HBO) — Andrij Parekh, “America Decides”
- “Succession” (HBO) — Lorene Scafaria, “Living+”
- “The White Lotus” (HBO) — Mike White, “Arrivederci”
- “Better Call Saul” (AMC) — Peter Gould, “Saul Gone”
- “Stranger Things” (Netflix) — The Duffer Brothers, “Chapter Nine: The Piggyback”
Next in Line
- “House of the Dragon” (HBO) — Miguel Sapochnik, “The Heirs of the Dragon”
- “The Old Man” (FX) — Jon Watts, “I”
- “The Crown” (Netflix) — Christian Schwochow, “Ipatiev House”
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Andor” (Disney+) — Benjamin Caron, “Rix Road”
- “Yellowjackets” (Showtime) — Liz Garbus, “Qui”
- “Yellowjackets” (Showtime) — Karyn Kusama, “Storytelling”
- “House of the Dragon” (HBO) — Greg Yaitanes, “The Black Queen”
- “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video) — J.A. Bayona, “A Shadow of the Past”
- “1923” (Paramount+) — Ben Richardson, “1923”
- “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network) — Christina Alexandra Voros, “A Knife and a Coin”
- “Queen Sugar” (OWN) — Ava DuVernay, “For They Existed”
- “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu) — Elisabeth Moss, “Safe”
- “The Mandalorian” (Disney+) — Lee Isaac Chung, “Chapter 19: The Convert”
2022 winner: Hwang Dong-hyuk, “Squid Game” (Netflix) — “Red Light, Green Light”
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated June 23, 2023): There are 146 submissions for directing (comedy) which makes this race even tighter since that will yield 6 nominees, unlike directing (drama) which will have seven.
Apple’s third season of “Ted Lasso” put up five directors for Emmy consideration — MJ Delaney (“I Don’t Want to Go to Chelsea”), Destiny Ekaragha (“4-5-1”), Erica Dunton (“La Locker Room Aux Folles”), Matt Lipsey (“Sunflowers”) and Declan Lowney (“So Long, Farewell”).
Netflix’s “Wednesday” has injected Tim Burton’s premiere episode “Wednesday’s Child is Full of Woe” for directing, which should be easy for him to nab.
Hulu’s sophomore season of “Only Murders in the Building” has four directors in the running — John Hoffman (“Persons of Interest”), Charien Dabis (“The Tell”), Chris Teague (“Flipping the Pieces”) and Jamie Babbit (“I Know Who Did It”). “I Know Who Did It” also serves as the writing submission, which helps Babbit.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
2022 category winner: “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) — MJ Delaney, “No Weddings and a Funeral”
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) — Declan Lowney, “So Long, Farewell”
- “The Bear” (FX) — Christopher Storer, “Review”
- “Barry” (HBO) — Bill Hader, “wow”
- “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video) — Amy Sherman-Palladino, “Four Minutes”
- “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — Randall Einhorn, “Teacher’s Conference”
- “Wednesday” (Netflix) — Tim Burton, “Wednesday’s Child is Full of Woe”
Next in Line
- “Shrinking” (Apple TV+) — James Ponsoldt, “Coin Flip”
- “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) — Jamie Babbit, “I Know Who Did It”
- “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) — Matt Lipsey, “Sunflowers”
- “Atlanta” (FX) — Hiro Murai, “It Was All a Dream”
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Shrinking” (Apple TV+) — Zach Braff, “Boop”
- “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) — John Hoffman, “Persons of Interest”
- “Poker Face” (Peacock) — Rian Johnson, “Escape From Shit Mountain”
- “Somebody Somewhere” (HBO) — Jay Duplass, “Keys Phone Cash ID”
- “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — Ken Whittingham, “Mom”
- “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) — Cherien Dabis, “The Tell”
- “The Great” (Hulu) — Matthew Moore, “Peter and the Wolf”
- “Dead to Me” (Netflix) — Liz Feldman, “We’ve Reached the End”
- “Mo” (Netflix) — Solvan Naim, “Testimony”
- “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) — MJ Delaney, “(I Don’t Want To Go To) Chelsea”
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Weekly Commentary (Updated June 23, 2023): The field for directing (limited or tv movie) has 134 names in the mix. That will deliver six nominees in the category.
Two-time Emmy-winning director Paris Barclay, who helms the finale of Netflix’s limited series “Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story,” is expected to pick up another nom, which would make him the first Black person to be nominated in all three directing narrative series categories.
He won twice in directing drama for “NYPD Blue” in 1998 for the “Lost Israel Part II” episode (he tied with Mark Tinker for “Brooklyn South”) and in 1999 for “Hearts and Souls,” in addition to a nom for “The West Wing” for 2002’s “The Indians in the Lobby.” In directing comedy, he was nominated three times for “Glee” in 2010 (“Wheels”), 2013 (“Diva”) and 2014 (“100”).
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
2022 category winner: “The White Lotus” (HBO) — Mike White, Series
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix) — Paris Barclay, “God of Forgiveness, God of Vengeance”
- “Daisy Jones & the Six” (Prime Video) — James Ponsoldt, “Track 1: Come And Get It (Pilot)”
- “Black Bird” (Apple TV+) — Michaël R. Roskam, “Pilot”
- “Beef” (Netflix) — Lee Sung Jun, “Figure of Light”
- “Love & Death” (HBO) — Lesli Linka Glatter, “The Huntress”
- “A Small Light” (National Geographic) — Susanna Fogel, “Pilot”
Next in Line
- “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX) — Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris, “Summon Your Witnesses”
- “Swarm” (Prime Video) — “Stung” by Donald Glover
- “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+) — Deborah Chow, “Part VI”
- “George & Tammy” (Showtime) — John Hillcoat, Series
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Dead Ringers” (Prime Video) — Sean Durkin, “One”
- “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel) — Eric Appel, Film
- “Daisy Jones & the Six” (Prime Video) — Nzingha Stewart, “Track 8: Looks Like We Made It”
- “The Patient” (Hulu) — Chris Long, “Intake”
- “White House Plumbers” (HBO) — David Mandel, Series
- “Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu) — Rachel Lee Goldenberg, “Pilot”
- “Paul T. Goldman” (Peacock) — Jason Woliner, Series
- “Fire Island” (Hulu) — Andrew Ahn, Film
- “Prey” (Hulu) — Dan Trachtenberg, Film
- “The English” (Prime Video) — Hugo Blick, Series
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.