Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated June 22, 2023): Writing drama race has 165 submissions this year.
Jesse Armstrong, who made history last year as the only sole writer to win outstanding writing (drama) three times, has chosen to submit the pivotal “Connor’s Wedding” episode for “Succession.”
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
No surprise, “The White Lotus,” which made its move from limited to drama this year, has put Mike White’s “Arrivederci” up for both writing and directing races.
HBO’s “The Last of Us” submitted only one episode for writing and directing, the emotional “Long, Long Time” by scribe Craig Mazin and helmer Peter Hoar. It focuses on two men riding out the apocalypse, played exquisitely by guest drama actor contenders Murray Bartlett and Nick Offerman.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
2022 winner: “Succession” (HBO) — “All the Bells Say” by Jesse Armstrong
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Succession” (HBO) — “Connor’s Wedding” by Jesse Armstrong
- “The Last of Us” (HBO) — “Long, Long Time” by Craig Mazin
- “The White Lotus” (HBO) — “Arrivederci” by Mike White
- “Better Call Saul” (AMC) — “Saul Gone” by Peter Gould
- “House of the Dragon” (HBO) — “The Heirs of the Dragon” by Ryan Condal
- “The Diplomat” (Netflix) — “Lambs in the Dark” by Debora Cahn
- “Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+) — “The Prick” by Sharon Horgan, Dave Finkel, Brett Baer
Next in Line
- “Andor” (Disney+) — “Rix Road” by Tony Gilroy
- “Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story” (Netflix) — “Crown Jewels” by Shonda Rhimes
- “The Crown” (Netflix) — “Gunpowder” by Peter Morgan
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Better Call Saul” (AMC) — “Breaking Bad” by Thomas Schnauz
- “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network) — “Horses in Heaven” by Taylor Sheridan
- “Stranger Things” (Netflix) — “Chapter Nine: The Piggyback” by The Duffer Brothers
- “Yellowjackets” (Showtime) — “Edible Complex” by Jonathan Lisco
- “The Old Man” (FX) — “I” by Jonathan E. Steinberg, Robert Levine
- “1923” (Paramount+) — “1923” by Taylor Sheridan
- “The Boys” (Prime Video) — “The Instant White-Hot Wild” by Logan Ritchey, David Reed
- “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video) — “Adrift” by Gennifer Hutchison
- “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu) — “Safe” by Bruce Miller
- “Better Call Saul” (AMC) — “Point and Shoot” by Gordon Smith
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated June 23, 2023): Writing (comedy) has 151 submitted episodes across multiple series. Six nominees will be announced on July 12.
ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” has three episodes in the running notably last year’s winner Quinta Brunson, who submitted the season two opener “Development Day.” The mockumentary also submitted “Educator of the Year” (by Jordan Temple) and “The Fundraiser” by Brittani Nichols.
Brunson, the first Black woman nominated in three comedy categories for the inaugural season, could also become the first Black woman nominated a second time for writing. That also could be the case for FX’s “Atlanta” and “What We Do in the Shadows” scribe Stefani Robinson.
Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building” has chosen the finale episode “I Know Who Did It” as its writing submission, penned by John Hoffman, Matteo Borghese and Rob Turbovsky.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
FX’s “The Bear” opted to submit Christopher Storer’s “Review” for directing, while in the writing race, Storer opted for “System.”
Netflix’s “Wednesday” has injected Tim Burton’s premiere episode “Wednesday’s Child is Full of Woe” for directing and writing.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
2022 winner: “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — “Pilot” by Quinta Brunson
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — “Development Day” by Quinta Brunson
- “The Bear” (FX) — “System” by Christopher Storer
- “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) — “So Long, Farewell” by Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, Jason Sudeikis
- “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video) — “Four Minutes” by Amy Sherman-Palladino, Daniel Palladino
- “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) — “I Know Who Did It” by John Hoffman, Matteo Borghese, Rob Turbovsky
- “Somebody Somewhere” (HBO) — “Keys Phone Cash ID” by Hannah Bos, Paul Thureen, Bridget Everett
Next in Line
- “Shrinking” (Apple TV+) — “Coin Flip” by Bill Lawrence, Jason Segel, Brett Goldstein
- “Poker Face” (Peacock) — “Dead Man’s Hand” by Rian Johnson
- “Barry” (HBO) — “wow” by Bill Hader
- “Atlanta” (FX) — “Light Skinned-ed” by Stefani Robinson
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — “The Fundraiser” by Brittani Nichols
- “Atlanta” (FX) — “It Was All a Dream” by Donald Glover
- “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX) — “Private School” by Ayo Edebiri, Shana Gohd
- “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — “Educator of the Year” by Jordan Temple
- “Wednesday” (Netflix) — “Wednesday’s Child is Full of Woe” by Alfred Gough, Miles Millar
- “The Great” (Hulu) — “Choose Your Weapon” by Tony McNamara
- “Mo” (Netflix) — “Hamoodi” by Mohammed Amer, Ramy Youssef
- “The Other Two” (HBO) — “Cary & Brooke Go to an AIDS Play” by Chris Kelly, Sarah Schneider
- “American Born Chinese” (Disney+) — “What Guy Are You” by Kelvin Yu, Charles Yu
- “The Rehearsal” (HBO) — “Orange Juice, No Pulp” by Nathan Fielder
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series or TV Movie
Weekly Commentary (Updated June 22, 2023): Directing (limited) has 109 submissions in the running.
The emotional resonance of FX’s “Fleishman is in Trouble” could do wonders for its directing duo, Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
We might also see our first TV movie director recognized in quite some time with Eric Appel’s hilarious “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” from The Roku Channel.
And then there’s “Beef,” which was a critical favorite but its two leading stars — Steven Yeun and Ali Wong — might be able to bring the series in for the ride, and that also includes its director Lee Sung Jun.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
2022 winner: “The White Lotus” (HBO) — Mike White
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Black Bird” (Apple TV+) — “WhatsHerName” by Dennis Lehane, Steve Harris
- “Beef” (Netflix) — “The Birds Don’t Sing, They Screech in Pain” by Lee Sung Jin
- “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX) — “Me-Time” by Taffy Brodesser-Akner
- “Love & Death” (HBO) — Series by David E. Kelley
- “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel) — Film screenplay by Al Yankovic, Eric Appel
- “Daisy Jones & the Six” (Prime Video) — “Track 5: Fire” by Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
Next in Line
- “Fire Island” (Hulu) — Film screenplay by Joel Kim Booster
- “Swarm” (Prime Video) — “Stung” by Janine Nabers, Donald Glover
- “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix) — “Silenced” by David McMillan, Janet Mock
- “A Small Light” (National Geographic) — “Pilot” by Joan Rater, Tony Phelan
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “The Patient” (Hulu) — Series by Joel Fields, Joe Weisberg
- “Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu) — “Pilot” by Liz Tigelaar
- “White House Plumbers” (HBO) — Series by Alex Gregory, Peter Huyck
- “Guillermo Del Toro’s Cabinet Of Curiosities” (Netflix) — “The Autopsy” by David S. Goyer
- “Irma Vep” (HBO) — Series by Olivier Assayas
- “George & Tammy” (Showtime) — “The Race is On” by Abe Sylvia
- “Mike” (Hulu) — “Desiree” by Steven Rogers
- “Dead Ringers” (Prime Video) — “One” by Alice Birch
- “This is Going to Hurt” (AMC) — Series by Adam Kay
- “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+) — “Part VI” by Joby Harold, Hossein Amini, Andrew Stanton
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.