Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated June 23, 2023): As a pundit, you take risks when predicting an unpredictable awards group. Some of those will give you kudos to last a while (hello Emmy winner Sheryl Lee Ralph) and others people will never let you forget (my heart still breaks for you “Ghosts”).
This is the category where you’ll find me with the biggest no guts, no glory pick of the year — “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” misses out on scripted variety.
As a voter fills out their Emmy ballot, the juxtaposition of the talk show (which was moved here by the Academy this year) standing next to “A Black Lady Sketch Show” and “SNL” may be too perplexing for some.
I assure you, if this happens, I’d bet you see HBO successfully petitioning for Oliver to be moved back to talk series in 2024. That helped “Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” get back into the structured race from hosted nonfiction.
Anyways, what the hell is even a scripted variety category where Oliver’s biting monologues about the war in Ukraine compete against Courtroom Kiki and Pedro Pascal playing a Super Mario brother?
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
Lorne Michaels and NBC executives hope for a significant return for “SNL” after nabbing only nine overall noms in 2022. This was a substantial drop from its total of 21 mentions in 2021. Nonetheless, it still won its sixth straight prize and could make it lucky number seven. The sketch series would be the clear benefactor from an Oliver miss.
Hulu’s “History of the World Part II” has the industry respect of Mel Brooks that could push the Emmy winner to another nom.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
2022 winner: “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
- “A Black Lady Sketch Show” (HBO)
- “History of the World Part II” (Hulu)
Next in Line
- “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO)
- “Inside Amy Schumer” (Paramount+)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Crank Yankers” (Paramount+)
- “Stephen Colbert Presents Tooning Out the News” (CBS)
- “Ziwe” (Showtime)
- “Random Acts of Flyness” (HBO)
- “Studio C” (BYU)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
- “Studio C” (BYU)
- “Stephen Colbert Presents Tooning Out the News” (CBS)
- “A Black Lady Sketch Show” (HBO)
- “History of the World Part II” (Hulu)
- “Inside Amy Schumer” (Paramount+)
- “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO)
- “Random Acts of Flyness” (HBO)
- “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
- “Crank Yankers” (Paramount+)
- “Amazon Music Live” (Prime Video)
- “Ziwe” (Showtime)
- “Comedy Invasion” (Viva)
** This official list and/or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: “Saturday Night Live” (NBC) — Season 48 — Lorne Michaels, executive producer; Javier Winnik, supervising producer; Lindsay Shookus, Erin Doyle, Tom Broecker and Caroline Maroney, producers; Steve Higgins and Erik Kenward, produced by
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.