Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: June 1, 2023
Weekly Commentary: We interrupt your Emmy Awards season to bring you a quick look at potential film awards players for next year’s Academy Awards.
Cannes handed the Palme d’Or prize to “Anatomy of a Fall,” but plenty of films received huge boosts out of France. Those also include “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “May December,” “The Zone of Interest,” and a few more titles still looking for a U.S. home.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary voting for the shortlists will begin on Dec. 18 with the results announced on Dec. 21. The nominations voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
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Best Picture
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Patrick McCormick, Denis Villeneuve
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films)
Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi
“Maestro” (Netflix) ***
Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Todd Phillips, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg
“May December” (Netflix)
Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
“Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson -
Director
Image Credit: ©Apple TV/Courtesy Everett Collection Bradley Cooper ***
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Jonathan Glazer
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Martin Scorsese
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Justine Triet
“Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Denis Villeneuve
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Actor in a Leading Role
Image Credit: Netflix Kingsley Ben-Adir
“Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
Bradley Cooper
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Leonardo DiCaprio
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Colman Domingo
“Rustin” (Netflix)
Paul Giamatti ***
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Actress in a Leading Role
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Fantasia Barrino ***
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Sandra Hüller
“Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Greta Lee
“Past Lives” (A24)
Carey Mulligan
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Natalie Portman
“May December” (Netflix)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Actor in a Supporting Role
Image Credit: Francois Duhamel Matt Bomer
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Robert DeNiro ***
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Colman Domingo
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi
“Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
Charles Melton
“May December” (Netflix)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Actress in a Supporting Role
Image Credit: Adam Franzino Danielle Brooks
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
America Ferrera
“Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
Lily Gladstone ***
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films)
Taraji P. Henson
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Julianne Moore
“May December” (Netflix)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
David Hemingson
“Maestro” (Netflix) ***
Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
“May December” (Netflix)
Sam Burch, Alex Mechanik
“Past Lives” (A24)
Celine Song
“Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
Emerald FennellOscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Universal Pictures “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
Rebecca Angelo, Lauren Schuker Blum (based on the book by Ben Mezrich)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films)
Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Christopher Nolan (based on “American Prometheus” by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Phil Lord, Chris Miller, Dave Callaham (based on characters created by Stan Lee)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24) ***
Jonathan Glazer (based on “The Zone of Interest” by Martin AmisOscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Animated Feature
Image Credit: Arcadia Motion Pictures “How Do You Live?” (GKids)
“Nimona” (Netflix)
“Robot Dreams” (Neon)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) ***
“Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Production Design
Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Patrice Vermette (production designer), Shane Vieau (set decorator)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Jack Fisk (production designer), Adam Willis (set decorator)
“Maestro” (Netflix) ***
Kevin Thompson (production designer), Rena DeAngelo (set decorator)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Ruth De Jong (production designer), Claire Kaufman (set decorator)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Chris Oddy (production designer), Joanna Kus, Katarzyna Sikora (set decorator)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Cinematography
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
Rob Hardy
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Greig Fraser
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films)
Rodrigo Prieto
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Hoyte van Hoytema
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Robbie RyanOscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Costume Design
Image Credit: Warner Bros. “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Jacqueline Durran
“The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
Antoinette Messam
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) ***
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Jacqueline West
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Mark BridgesOscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Film Editing
“Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
Pamela Martin
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Joe Walker
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films)
Thelma Schoonmaker
“Maestro” (Netflix) ***
Michelle Tesoro
“Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
Victoria BoydellOscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Courtesy of Lionsgate “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)
“Maestro” (Netflix) ***Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Sound
Image Credit: Getty “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Oppenheimer” (Warner Bros.)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Visual Effects
Image Credit: DISNEY “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
“The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)
“Rebel Moon” (Netflix)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Original Score
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Hans Zimmer
“Elemental” (Pixar) ***
Thomas Newman
“Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
Michael Giacchino
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Ludwig Göransson
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Daniel PembertonOscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Original Song
Image Credit: Anna Kooris / Courtesy of Searchlight pcitures “Flamin’ Hot” (Searchlight Pictures) — To be announced
“Flora and Son” (Apple TV+) — To be announced
“The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate) — To be announced
“Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination) — “Peaches”
“Untitled Diane Warren Documentary Project” (No U.S. Distribution) — To be announced ***Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Documentary Feature
“The Eternal Memory” (MTV Documentary Films) ***
“Little Richard: I Am Everything” (Magnolia Pictures)
“Stamped From the Beginning” (Netflix)
“Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple Original Films)
“Youth (Spring)” (No U.S. Distribution)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival “Anatomy of a Fall” (France) ***
“El Conde” (Chile)
“La Chimera” (Italy)
“Monster” (Japan)
“The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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