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Emmys: Drama Series – New Voting Method Creates Unknown X Factors in the Race

With voters having only eight choices, will HBO dominate the category with 'House of the Dragon,' 'The Last of Us,' 'Succession' and 'The White Lotus?'

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series

Courtesy of Paramount+

Weekly Commentary (Updated: June 22, 2023): Ballots are now in the hands of the members of the Television Academy, and a new voting method that limits the number of shows a member can vote for has created uncertainty in the race.

This is a change from the rule instated in 2017 that gave members unlimited choices in the nomination round of voting.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.

In drama, the submissions include freshman series such as HBO’s “The Last of Us,” Disney’s “Andor” and FX’s “The Old Man,” along with the final seasons of HBO’s “Succession” and AMC’s “Better Call Saul.” The 163 entries compared to last year’s 171, as well as 133 in 2021 and the record of 199 in 2020.

The Emmys love their returning shows, especially those who have been crowned (no pun intended) previously. Netflix’s “The Crown” has been consistently projected to be among the eight shows recognized by pundits, despite viewers feeling “uninspired” by the season. Hulu’s “The Handmaid’s Tale” could also pop up after winning in 2017, but is also hoping to shake off the record for most losses for a show in a season (going 0 for 21) that it set in 2021.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.

Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.


And the Predicted Nominees Are:


  1. Succession” (HBO)
  2. The White Lotus” (HBO)
  3. The Last of Us” (HBO)
  4. Better Call Saul” (AMC)
  5. The Crown” (Netflix)
  6. Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
  7. 1923” (Paramount+)
  8. House of the Dragon” (HBO)

Next in Line


  1. The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
  2. Andor” (Disney+)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities


  1. The Old Man” (FX)
  2. The Diplomat” (Netflix)
  3. Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
  4. The Boys” (Prime Video)
  5. Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)
  6. The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
  7. The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video)
  8. Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story” (Netflix)
  9. P Valley” (Starz)
  10. Grey’s Anatomy” (ABC)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**


** This official list and/or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.

2022 category winner: “Succession” (HBO) — Season 3 — Jesse Armstrong, Adam McKay, Will Ferrell, Frank Rich, Kevin Messick, Mark Mylod, Jane Tranter, Tony Roche, Scott Ferguson, Jon Brown, Lucy Prebble, Will Tracy (executive producers); Georgia Pritchett, Ted Cohen (co-executive producers); Susan Soon He Stanton, Dara Schnapper (supervising producers); Gabrielle Mahon (produced by); Francesca Gardiner (consulting producer)

Emmy Awards Predictions Categories

DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.