Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated: June 22, 2023): The lead drama actor Emmy ballot has 109 names submitted, giving us six nominees when nominations are announced. What’s interesting about the race this year is no one is safe, even the men from “Succession.”
Brian Cox’s brooding media mogul, Logan Roy, met a shocking early demise on the HBO drama. Still, he remains competitive alongside his co-stars Kieran Culkin (moving to the lead category for the first time) and Jeremy Strong (a former winner for the second season). The truth is, any could be left out.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
Pedro Pascal has three opportunities for Emmy recognition this year. He has two lead drama actor bids in the running. One as Joel, a hardened survivor from HBO’s apocalyptic video game adaptation “The Last of Us,” and the other as Din Djarin, a.k.a. “The Mandalorian” in the Disney+ “Star Wars” spin-off series. He also has a guest comedy actor submission for his hosting stint on NBC’s “Saturday Night Live.”
The 48-year-old Chilean actor spoke with Variety for the Awards Circuit Video podcast talking about being a role model for young people that seemed to touch the masses: “I want to be able to fulfill the assignment and continue to fulfill the assignment,” Pascal says as he crosses his arms like a nervous student on the first day of school. “It’s the best part. It’s not necessarily about getting an ‘A’ but understanding someone’s vision and being a scene partner for somebody. If it comes to inspiring somebody else… maybe that’s the component I’m unwilling to recognize. It can make my heart explode a little bit.”
Harrison Ford has never received an Emmy nom, and he could get two this year. One is for “1923,” and the other is for his career-best performance as a senior therapist with Parkinson’s disease in “Shrinking” from Apple TV, which he’s submitted for supporting comedy actor. One could help the other.
Establishment veterans, such as Jeff Bridges (“The Old Man”) and Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”), could be safe, but the race is particularly competitive.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Bob Odenkirk — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
- Pedro Pascal — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Kieran Culkin — “Succession” (HBO)
- Brian Cox — “Succession” (HBO)
- Jeff Bridges — “The Old Man” (FX)
- Harrison Ford — “1923” (Paramount+)
Next in Line
- Jeremy Strong — “Succession” (HBO)
- Diego Luna — “Andor” (Disney+)
- Paddy Considine — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
- Dominic West — “The Crown” (Netflix)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Bryan Cranston — “Your Honor” (Showtime)
- Kevin Costner — “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)
- Patrick Stewart — “Star Trek: Picard” (Paramount+)
- Forest Whitaker — “Godfather of Harlem” (MGM+)
- Gary Oldman — “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
- Matthew Rhys — “Perry Mason” (HBO)
- Antony Starr — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
- Kiefer Sutherland — “Rabbit Hole” (Paramount+)
- Joshua Jackson — “Fatal Attraction” (Paramount+)
- Nicco Annan — “P Valley” (Starz)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
- Milo Ventimiglia — “The Company You Keep” (ABC)
- Freddie Highmore — “The Good Doctor” (ABC)
- Ramón Rodríguez — “Will Trent” (ABC)
- Jacob Anderson — “Anne Rice’s Interview with the Vampire” (AMC)
- Bob Odenkirk — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
- Wyatt Oleff — “City on Fire” (Apple TV+)
- Zahn McClarnon — “Dark Winds” (AMC)
- Colin O’Brien — “Dear Edward” (Apple TV+)
- Michiel Huisman — “Echo 3” (Apple TV+)
- Luke Evans — “Echo 3” (Apple TV+)
- Justin Theroux — “Mosquito Coast” (Apple TV+)
- Jason Mamoa — “See” (Apple TV+)
- Toby Kebbell — “Servant” (Apple TV+)
- Gary Oldman — “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
- Tom Selleck — “Blue Bloods” (CBS)
- Jay Hernandez — “Magnum P.I.” (CBS)
- Wilmer Valderrama — “NCIS” (CBS)
- LL Cool J — “NCIS: Los Angeles” (CBS)
- David Boreanaz — “SEAL Team” (CBS)
- Shemar Moore — “S.W.A.T.” (CBS)
- Oscar Morgan — “Gotham Knights” (The CW)
- Jack Bannon — “Pennyworth” (The CW)
- Diego Luna — “Andor” (Disney+)
- Pedro Pascal — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Peter Krause — “9-1-1” (Fox)
- Rob Lowe — “9-1-1: Lone Star” (Fox)
- Micah Stock — “Kindred” (FX)
- Jeff Bridges — “The Old Man” (FX)
- Damson Idris — “Snowfall” (FX)
- Amir Wilson — “His Dark Materials” (HBO)
- Paddy Considine — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
- Pedro Pascal — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Matthew Rhys — “Perry Mason” (HBO)
- Jeremy Strong — “Succession” (HBO)
- Brian Cox — “Succession” (HBO)
- Kieran Culkin — “Succession” (HBO)
- Aaron Paul — “Westworld” (HBO)
- Seth MacFarlane — “The Orville: New Horizons” (Hulu)
- Josh Bonzie — “Saint X” (Hulu)
- Jayden Elijah — “Saint X” (Hulu)
- Jackson White — “Tell Me Lies” (Hulu)
- Shameik Moore — “Wu-Tang: An American Saga” (Hulu)
- Ashton Sanders — “Wu-Tang: An American Saga” (Hulu)
- Siddiq Saunderson — “Wu-Tang: An American Saga” (Hulu)
- Harold Perrineau — “From” (MGM+)
- Forest Whitaker — “Godfather of Harlem” (MGM+)
- Sam Corlett — “Vikings: Valhalla” (MGM+)
- Leo Suter — “Vikings: Valhalla” (MGM+)
- James Spader — “The Blacklist” (NBC)
- Taylor Kinney — “Chicago Fire” (NBC)
- Jason Beghe — “Chicago P.D.” (NBC)
- Zeeko Zaki — “FBI” (NBC)
- Luke Kleintank — “FBI: International” (NBC)
- Dylan McDermott — “FBI: Most Wanted” (NBC)
- Eoin Macken — “La Brea” (NBC)
- Hugh Dancy — “Law & Order” (NBC)
- Jeffrey Donovan — “Law & Order” (NBC)
- Christopher Meloni — “Law & Order: Organized Crime” (NBC)
- Ryan Eggold — “New Amsterdam” (NBC)
- Raymond Lee — “Quantum Leap” (NBC)
- Andreas Pietschmann — “1899” (Netflix)
- Dominic West — “The Crown” (Netflix)
- Ben Lawson — “Firefly Lane” (Netflix)
- Cameron Chapman — “Lockwood & Co.” (Netflix)
- Josh Dallas — “Manifest” (Netflix)
- Gabriel Basso — “The Night Agent” (Netflix)
- Chase Stokes — “Outer Banks” (Netflix)
- Corey Mylchreest — “Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story” (Netflix)
- Cillian Murphy — “Peaky Blinders” (Netflix)
- Noah Centineo — “The Recruit” (Netflix)
- Tom Sturridge — “The Sandman” (Netflix)
- Elliot Page — “The Umbrella Academy” (Netflix)
- Penn Badgley — “You” (Netflix)
- Kofi Siribow — “Queen Sugar” (OWN)
- Harrison Ford — “1923” (Paramount+)
- Joe Mantegna — “Criminal Minds: Evolution” (Paramount+)
- Mike Colter — “Evil” (Paramount+)
- Joshua Jackson — “Fatal Attraction” (Paramount+)
- Jeremy Renner — “Mayor of Kingstown” (Paramount+)
- Kiefer Sutherland — “Rabbit Hole” (Paramount+)
- Charlie Hunnam — “Shantaram” (Paramount+)
- Patrick Stewart — “Star Trek: Picard” (Paramount+)
- Rodrigo Santoro — “Wolf Pack” (Paramount+)
- Kevin Costner — “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)
- Jobari Banks — “Bel-Air” (Peacock)
- Jeff Wilbusch — “The Calling” (Peacock)
- Chibuikem Uche — “One of Us is Lying” (Peacock)
- Cooper van Grootel — “One of Us is Lying” (Peacock)
- Jack Quaid — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
- Antony Starr — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
- Karl Urban — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
- Orlando Bloom — “Carnival Row” (Prime Video)
- Richard Madden — “Citadel” (Prime Video)
- Logan Lerman — “Hunters” (Prime Video)
- Al Pacino — “Hunters” (Prime Video
- Chris Pratt — “The Terminal List” (Prime Video)
- Alfred Molina — “Three Pines” (Prime Video)
- John Krasinski — “Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan” (Prime Video)
- Anthony Pallino — “Welcome to Hope” (PureFlix)
- Kevin Bacon – “City on a Hill” (Showtime)
- Giovanni Ribisi — “Waco: The Aftermath” (Showtime)
- Michael Shannon — “Waco: The Aftermath” (Showtime)
- Bryan Cranston — “Your Honor” (Showtime)
- Demetrius Flenory Jr. — “BMF” (Starz)
- Nicco Annan — “P Valley” (Starz)
- Michael Rainey Jr. — “Power Book II: Ghost” (Starz)
- MeKai Curtis — “Power Book III: Raising Kanan” (Starz)
- Björgvin Arnarson — “Chucky” (Syfy)
- Zackary Arthur — “Chucky” (Syfy)
** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Lee Jung-jae as Seong Gi-hun, “Squid Game” (Netflix) — Season 1
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.