Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Weekly Commentary (Updated: June 22, 2023): Names like Evan Peters (“Dahmer”) and Daniel Radcliffe (“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story”) are among the top contenders for the lead actor (limited) race, which had a total of 97 submissions (vs. 64 last year). However, there is always room for some surprises. One could come from a stage musical that played on BroadwayHD.
Similar to the sprawling cast of “Hamilton” which nabbed Emmy noms for the majority of its cases,t including Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom Jr, legendary comedian Billy Crystal could show up for his work in the stage musical “Mr. Saturday Night: A New Musical Comedy.”
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
A stage musical adaptation of the film,m which earned David Paymer an Oscar nom for supporting actor, Crystal is a beloved industry veteran who won six Emmys over his tenure. His most recent win was as the host for the 1998 Academy Awards, and his recent nom was for writing his variety special, “Billy Crystal: 700 Sundays” in 2014. “Mr. Saturday Night” is currently on Prime Video.
Taron Egerton looks like a safe bet for Apple TV+’s “Black Bird,” and Michael Shannon should pair nicely with his front-running co-star for Showtime’s “George & Tammy.”
He’ll need to get around Steve Carell from FX’s “The Patient” and Steven Yeun from Netflix’s “Beef,” who seem more likely candidates with strong network backing.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Evan Peters — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Taron Egerton — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- Daniel Radcliffe — “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel)
- Michael Shannon — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
- Steve Carell — “The Patient” (Hulu)
- Steven Yeun — “Beef” (Netflix)
Next in Line
- Billy Crystal — “Mr. Saturday Night: A New Musical Comedy” (BroadwayHD)
- Woody Harrelson — “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
- Ewan McGregor — “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
- Jesse Eisenberg — “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Sam Claflin — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Ben Whishaw — “This is Going to Hurt” (AMC)
- Damian Lewis — “A Spy Among Friends” (MGM+)
- Kumail Nanjiani — “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
- Andy Garcia — “Father of the Bride” (HBO)
- Bryan Cranston — “Jerry and Marge Go Large” (Paramount+)
- Alexander Skarsgård — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Chaske Spencer — “The English” (Prime Video)
- Trevante Rhodes — “Mike” (Hulu)
- F. Murray Abraham — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
- Josh Groban — “Beauty and the Beast: A 30th Celebration” (ABC)
- Ben Whishaw — “This is Going to Hurt” (AMC)
- Taron Egerton — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
- Billy Crystal — “Mr. Saturday Night: A New Musical Comedy” (BroadwayHD)
- Patrick Dempsey — “Disenchanted” (Disney+)
- Tom Hanks — “Disney’s Pinocchio” (Disney+)
- Ewan McGregor — “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
- Jesse Eisenberg — “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
- Andy Garcia — “Father of the Bride” (HBO)
- Woody Harrelson — “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
- Joel Kim Booster — “Fire Island” (Hulu)
- Fionn Whitehead — “Great Expectations” (Hulu)
- Trevante Rhodes — “Mike” (Hulu)
- Steve Carell — “The Patient” (Hulu)
- Kumail Nanjiani — “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
- Alexander Skarsgård — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Jamie Demetriou — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Trystan Gravelle — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Damian Lewis — “A Spy Among Friends” (MGM+)
- Guy Pearce — “A Spy Among Friends” (MGM+)
- Joe Cole — “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
- Steven Yeun — “Beef” (Netflix)
- F. Murray Abraham — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Ben Barnes — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Crispin Glover — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Rupert Grint — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- David Hewlett — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Andrew Lincoln — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Tim Blake Nelson — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Peter Weller — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Evan Peters — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Rob Lowe — “Dog Gone” (Netflix)
- Eugenio Mastrandrea — “From Scratch” (Netflix)
- Giancarlo Esposito – “Kaleidoscope” (Netflix)
- Alexander Dreymon — “Last Kingdom: Seven Kings Must Die” (Netflix)
- Justin Hartley — “The Noel Diary” (Netflix)
- Bobby Cannavale — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Laurence O’Fuarain — “The Witcher: Blood Origin” (Netflix)
- Gaten Matarazzo — “Honor Society” (Paramount+)
- Bryan Cranston — “Jerry and Marge Go Large” (Paramount+)
- Thomas Lennon — “Reno 911: It’s a Wonderful Heist” (Paramount+)
- Tyler Posey — “Teen Wolf: The Movie” (Paramount+)
- Solly McLeod — “Tom Jones: Masterpiece” (PBS)
- Colin Hanks — “A Friend of the Family” (Peacock)
- Jake Lacy — “A Friend of the Family” (Peacock)
- Matthew Fox — “Last Light” (Peacock)
- Pete Davidson — “Meet Cute” (Peacock)
- Sam Claflin — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Chaske Spencer — “The English” (Prime Video)
- Ben Platt — “The People We Hate at the Wedding” (Prime Video)
- Sylvester Stallone — “Samaritan” (Prime Video)
- Josh Duhamel — “Shotgun Wedding” (Prime Video)
- Jay Ellis — “Somebody I Used to Know” (Prime Video)
- Kendrick Sampson — “Something from Tiffany’s” (Prime Video)
- Daniel Radcliffe — “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel)
- Michael Shannon — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Michael Keaton, “Dopesick” (Hulu)
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.