Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated: June 22, 2023): Sarah Snook has switched from supporting to lead drama actress for her performance as the political fixer Shiv in the final season of “Succession.” She would be the first nominee of supporting and lead for the same role since Emilia Clarke for “Game of Thrones” in 2019 (also a final season).
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
In terms of a winner, you have to go back to Emmy darling Allison Janney who won lead drama actress twice for “The West Wing” in 2002 and 2004, after winning supporting drama actress. However, Snook has yet to win. If she did, she would be the first successful non-supporting winner to take home the statuette in lead drama actress. There have been a couple of attempts over the years such as Clarke, with a few attempting the supporting actress route instead of the lead races such as Lorraine Bracco (“The Sopranos”) and Elisabeth Moss (“Mad Men”). All came up empty-handed.
Showtime’s “Yellowjackets” had a dark and gruesome year for plane crash survivor Shauna, played exquisitely by Melanie Lynskey as the adult version and Sophie Nélisse (another campaign switcharoo) as the pregnant teenage version. With both submitted in lead drama actress, if both are nominated, it would be the first time for two actors who play the same character in the same category.
For her role as Ellie, humanity’s last hope in “The Last of Us,” star Bella Ramsey, 19, could be the fourth youngest nominee in the category’s history. She would follow Kristy McNichol (17 in 1980 for “Family”), Claire Danes (16 in 1995 for “My So-Called Life”) and Melissa Sue Anderson (15 in 1978 for “Little House on the Prairie”).
The Taylor Sheridan universe continues to gain traction as seen with Helen Mirren’s work as Cara Dutton on Paramount+’s “1923.” If recognized, Mirren, 77, could be the oldest nominee in the history of her category, surpassing Angela Lansbury, who was 70 when she received her final nom for “Murder She Wrote” in 1996.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Sarah Snook — “Succession” (HBO)
- Melanie Lynskey — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
- Helen Mirren — “1923” (Paramount+)
- Elisabeth Moss — “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
- Bella Ramsey — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Imelda Staunton — “The Crown” (Netflix)
Next in Line
- Keri Russell — “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
- Sophie Nélisse — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
- Emma D’Arcy — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
- Sharon Horgan — “Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Toni Collette — “The Power” (Prime Video)
- Hilary Swank — “Alaska Daily” (ABC)
- Juliette Lewis — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
- Angela Bassett — “9-1-1” (Fox)
- Katherine Heigl — “Firefly Lane” (Netflix)
- Tawny Cypress — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
- Christine Baranski — “The Good Fight” (Paramount+)
- India Amarteifio — “Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story” (Netflix)
- Octavia Spencer — “Truth Be Told” (Apple TV+)
- Katie Sackhoff — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
- Hilary Swank — “Alaska Daily” (ABC)
- Alexandra Daddario — “Anne Rice’s Mayfair Witches” (AMC)
- Sharon Horgan — “Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
- Jessica Ann Collins — “Echo 3” (Apple TV+)
- Krys Marshall — “For All Mankind” (Apple TV+)
- Eva Green — “Liaison” (Apple TV+)
- Melissa George — “Mosquito Coast” (Apple TV+)
- Sylvia Hoeks — “See” (Apple TV+)
- Lauren Ambrose — “Servant” (Apple TV+)
- Gugu Mbatha-Raw — “Surface” (Apple TV+)
- Octavia Spencer — “Truth Be Told” (Apple TV+)
- Simone Missick — “All Rise” (CBS)
- Queen Latifah — “The Equalizer” (CBS)
- Katherine McNamara — “Walker: Independence” (The CW)
- Katie Sackhoff — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Angela Bassett — “9-1-1” (Fox)
- Roselyn Sánchez — “Fantasy Island” (Fox)
- Neicy Nash-Betts — “The Rookie: Feds” (Fox)
- Railey Gilliland — “High School” (Freevee)
- Seazynn Gilliand — “High School” (Freevee)
- Mallori Johnson — “Kindred” (FX)
- Nancy Travis — “Ride” (Hallmark)
- Anne Marie Raneri — “Welcome to Hope” (Hallmark)
- Emma D’Arcy — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
- Dafne Keen — “His Dark Materials” (HBO)
- Marisa Abela — “Industry” (HBO)
- Myha’la Herrold — “Industry” (HBO)
- Bella Ramsey — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Sarah Snook — “Succession” (HBO)
- Evan Rachel Wood — “Westworld” (HBO)
- Elisabeth Moss — “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
- Melissa Roxburgh — “Manifest” (Netflix)
- Caitlin Bassett — “Quantum Leap” (NBC)
- Emily Beecham — “1899” (Netflix)
- Imelda Staunton — “The Crown” (Netflix)
- Keri Russell — “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
- Katherine Heigl — “Firefly Lane” (Netflix)
- Brianne Howey — “Ginny & Georgia” (Netflix)
- Madelyn Cline — “Outer Banks” (Netflix)
- India Amarteifio — “Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story” (Netflix)
- Charlotte Ritchie — “You” (Netflix)
- Dawn-Lyen Gardner — “Queen Sugar” (OWN)
- Helen Mirren — “1923” (Paramount+)
- Katja Herbers — “Evil” (Paramount+)
- Amanda Peet — “Fatal Attraction” (Paramount+)
- Lizzy Caplan — “Fatal Attraction” (Paramount+)
- Christine Baranski — “The Good Fight” (Paramount+)
- Luciane Buchanan — “The Night Agent” (Netflix)
- Lizzy Caplan — “Fatal Attraction” (Paramount+)
- Meta Golding — “Rabbit Hole” (Paramount+)
- Sonequa Martin-Green — “Star Trek: Discovery” (Paramount+)
- Sarah Michelle Gellar — “Wolf Pack” (Paramount+)
- Kelly Reilly — “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)
- Karen Fukuhara — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
- Ein Moriarty — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
- Priyanka Chopra Jonas — “Citadel” (Prime Video)
- Jerrika Hinton — “Hunters” (Prime Video)
- Chloë Grace Moretz — “The Peripheral” (Prime Video)
- Toni Collette — “The Power” (Prime Video)
- Deborah Ayorinde — “Riches” (Prime Video)
- Constance Wu — “The Terminal List” (Prime Video)
- Jennifer Beals — “The L Word: Generation Q” (Showtime)
- Leisha Hailey — “The L Word: Generation Q” (Showtime)
- Kate Moennig — “The L Word: Generation Q” (Showtime)
- Hope Davis — “Your Honor” (Showtime)
- Tawny Cypress — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
- Juliette Lewis — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
- Melanie Lynskey — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
- Sophie Nélisse — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
- Alice Englert — “Dangerous Liaisons” (Starz)
- Brandee Evans — “P Valley” (Starz)
- Patina Miller — “Power Book III: Raising Kanan” (Starz)
- Samantha Morton — “The Serpent Queen” (Starz)
** This official list and category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Zendaya as Ruby “Rue” Bennett in “Euphoria” (HBO) — Season 2 (Submission: “Stand Still Like the Hummingbird”)
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.