Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Weekly Commentary (Updated June 22, 2023): Ninety-six submissions are up in this category (compared to 92 in 2022). That will provide six nominees to be named on July 12.
Coming off her double Tony nomination and a Screen Actors Guild Award win for “George and Tammy,” Jessica Chastain seems to be in the front-runner position for her stunning turn as the famed singer Tammy Wynette. The Oscar winner of “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (2021) also keeps the buzz alive for her co-star Michael Shannon and the prospects for her Showtime series popping up in the limited series races.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
She’ll face Elizabeth Olsen’s work as the murderous Candy Montgomery in HBO’s “Love & Death,” which could garner additional mentions for co-stars Jesse Plemons and Lily Rabe (and possibly directing and limited series)
The rest of the potential field could be filled with actresses from shows for which they are the sole nomination for, particularly Emily Blunt (“The English”) and Rachel Weisz (“Dead Ringers”), who are both from Prime Video shows.
Another Amazon show, Riley Keough leads the charge for “Daisy Jones & the Six” which is a beloved show and a purity selection for industry and TV members. However, she may not have the same “prestige” that some of her counterparts have walking through the door, despite how fantastic the performance is. as some of her competitors. You can apply that same logic to Dominique Fishback from “Swarm.”
Stand-up comedian Ali Wong surprises us with her fierce portrayal in Netflix’s “Beef.” But will the show be an across-the-board contender or is there a potential miss within the realm of the dark series? With members only getting six choices, that leaves the door open for snubs and surprises.
There’s also the late push for “A S, mall Light,” which could bring in Bel Powley or the star power of Kathryn Hahn from “Tiny Beautiful Things” that could sneak in.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Jessica Chastain — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
- Elizabeth Olsen — “Love & Death” (HBO)
- Ali Wong — “Beef” (Netflix)
- Emily Blunt — “The English” (Prime Video)
- Kathryn Hahn — “Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu)
- Riley Keough — “Daisy Jones & the Six” (Prime Video)
Next in Line
- Rachel Weisz — “Dead Ringers” (Prime Video)
- Bel Powley — “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
- Sydney Sweeney — “Reality” (HBO)
- Dominique Fishback — “Swarm” (Prime Video)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Lizzy Caplan — “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
- Jennifer Garner — “The Last Thing He Told Me” (Apple TV+)
- Amber Midthunder — “Prey” (Hulu)
- Betty Gilpin — “Mrs. Davis” (Peacock)
- Vera Farmiga — “Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+)
- Annette Bening — “Jerry and Marge Go Large” (Paramount+)
- Alicia Vikander — “Irma Vep” (HBO)
- Cate Blanchett — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Naomi Watts — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Keira Knightley — “Boston Strangler” (Hulu)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
- H.E.R. — “Beauty and the Beast: A 30th Celebration” (ABC)
- Vera Farmiga — “Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+)
- Jennifer Garner — “The Last Thing He Told Me” (Apple TV+)
- Bellamy Young — “A Waltons Thanksgiving” (The CW)
- Amy Adams — “Disenchanted” (Disney+)
- Bette Midler — “Hocus Pocus 2” (Disney+)
- Sarah Jessica Parker — “Hocus Pocus 2” (Disney+)
- Iman Vellani — “Ms. Marvel” (Disney+)
- Lizzy Caplan — “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
- Gloria Estefan — “Father of the Bride” (HBO)
- Alicia Vikander — “Irma Vep” (HBO)
- Elizabeth Olsen — “Love & Death” (HBO)
- Sydney Sweeney — “Reality” (HBO)
- Keira Knightley — “Boston Strangler” (Hulu)
- Olivia Colman — “Great Expectations” (Hulu)
- Amber Midthunder — “Prey” (Hulu)
- Kathryn Hahn — “Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu)
- Cate Blanchett — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Liliane Rovère — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Harriet Walter — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Bel Powley — “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
- Dolly Parton — “Dolly Parton’s Mountain Magic Christmas” (NBC)
- Ali Wong — “Beef” (Netflix)
- Essie Davis — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Kate Micucci — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Maya Hawke — “Do Revenge” (Netflix)
- Camila Mendes — “Do Revenge” (Netflix)
- Zoe Saldaña — “From Scratch” (Netflix)
- Paz Vega – “Kaleidoscope” (Netflix)
- Barrett Doss — “The Noel Diary” (Netflix)
- Gillian Jacobs — “Transatlantic” (Netflix)
- Naomi Watts — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Sophia Brown — “The Witcher: Blood Origin” (Netflix)
- Angourie Rice — “Honor Society” (Paramount+)
- Annette Bening — “Jerry and Marge Go Large” (Paramount+)
- Sophie Wilde — “Tom Jones: Masterpiece” (PBS)
- Kaley Cuoco — “Meet Cute” (Peacock)
- Joanne Froggatt — “Last Light” (Peacock)
- Betty Gilpin — “Mrs. Davis” (Peacock)
- Riley Keough — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Rachel Weisz — “Dead Ringers” (Prime Video)
- Emily Blunt — “The English” (Prime Video)
- Elsie Fisher — “My Best Friend’s Exorcism” (Prime Video)
- Amiah Miller — “My Best Friend’s Exorcism” (Prime Video)
- Allison Janney — “The People We Hate at the Wedding” (Prime Video)
- Jennifer Lopez — “Shotgun Wedding” (Prime Video)
- Alison Brie — “Somebody I Used to Know” (Prime Video)
- Zoey Deutch — “Something from Tiffany’s” (Prime Video)
- Dominique Fishback — “Swarm” (Prime Video)
- Jessica Chastain — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
** This official list and category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Amanda Seyfried, “The Dropout” (Hulu)
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.