Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated June 22, 2023): The “Star Wars” spin-off series from Disney+ — “Andor” and “The Mandalorian” — will have a barrage of actors to submit for guest acting consideration.
“Andor” will have the best shot with veteran actor Andy Serkis, whose sole Emmy nom was in 2009 for supporting actor (limited) for “Little Dorrit.” As Kino Loy, a prisoner at the Narkina 5 Imperial facility, he was a standout from the critically acclaimed show.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
With “Mandalorian,” Jack Black and Christopher Lloyd will be the big names on the contenders’ list but the great Giancarlo Esposito, who’s been nominated twice for playing Moff Gideon in supporting drama actor and guest, seems to be an actor in the TV Academy will have no problem returning to check off. It also helps he’s in the conversation for the final season of AMC’s “Better Call Saul.” Coincidentally, the AMC drama also has a half dozen names in contention — notably Bryan Cranston and Aaron Paul.
The genre shows will be trying relentlessly to get around the one-two punch of Murray Bartlett and Nick Offerman from HBO’s “The Last of Us,” which includes other worthy performances from Lamar Johnson and Gabriel Luna. Its cable/streamer counterpart “Succession” is sure to have a bite at the apple for James Cromwell and Arian Moayed, both of which have been invited to the party before.
Despite Netflix’s “Stranger Things” being ineligible for best drama series, actor Dacre Montgomery as the deceased stepbrother Billy is submitted for guest actor in a drama series, which could be one of the major pieces of recognition the horror series can receive, which includes writing and directing.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Nick Offerman — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Murray Bartlett — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- James Cromwell — “Succession” (HBO)
- Bryan Cranston — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
- Andy Serkis — “Andor” (Disney+)
- Arian Moayed — “Succession” (HBO)
Next in Line
- Giancarlo Esposito — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Lamar Johnson — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Dacre Montgomery — “Stranger Things” (Netflix)
- Jon Gries — “The White Lotus” (HBO)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Justin Kirk — “Succession” (HBO)
- Christopher Lloyd — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Jack Black — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Joel Grey — “The Old Man” (FX)
- Aaron Paul — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
- Gabriel Luna — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Troy Baker — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Peter Mullan — “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video)
- Alan Cumming — “The Good Fight” (Paramount+)
- John Cameron Mitchell — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
- Vince Swann — “Will Trent” (ABC)
- Bryan Cranston — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
- Tony Dalton — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
- Mark Margolis — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
- Michael McKean — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
- Aaron Paul — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
- Jonathan Pryce — “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
- Rico E. Anderson — “FBI International” (CBS)
- Andy Serkis — “Andor” (Disney+)
- Forest Whitaker — “Andor” (Disney+)
- Alex Lawther — “Andor” (Disney+)
- Omid Abtahi — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Ahmed Best — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Jack Black — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Giancarlo Esposito — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Christopher Lloyd — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Paul Sun-Hyung Lee — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- Joel Grey — “The Old Man” (FX)
- Tom Glynn-Carney — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
- Ty Tennant — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
- Troy Baker — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Nick Offerman — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Murray Bartlett — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Lamar Johnson — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Gabriel Luna — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Jeffrey Pierce — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- Keivonn Montreal Woodard — “The Last of Us” (HBO)
- James Cromwell — “Succession” (HBO)
- Justin Kirk — “Succession” (HBO)
- Arian Moayed — “Succession” (HBO)
- Ashley Zukerman — “Succession” (HBO)
- Jon Gries — “The White Lotus” (HBO)
- Bradley Whitford — “Law & Order: SVU” (NBC)
- Alex Jennings — “The Crown” (Netflix)
- Timothy Dalton — “The Crown” (Netflix)
- Prasanna Puwanarajah — “The Crown” (Netflix)
- Khalid Abdalla — “The Crown” (Netflix)
- Michael McKean — “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
- David Thewlis — “The Sandman” (Netflix)
- John Cameron Mitchell — “The Sandman” (Netflix)
- Dacre Montgomery — “Stranger Things” (Netflix)
- Greg Kinnear — “You” (Netflix)
- Peter Stormare — “1923” (Paramount+)
- James Badge Dale — “1923” (Paramount+)
- Alan Cumming — “The Good Fight” (Paramount+)
- Bill Bellamy — “Bel-Air” (Peacock)
- Paul Reiser — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
- Peter Mullan — “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video)
- Benjamin Walker — “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video)
- John Cameron Mitchell — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
- John Clarence Stewart — “P-Valley” (Starz)
** This official list and/or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Colman Domingo as Ali Muhammed in “Euphoria” (HBO)
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.