Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Documentary of Nonfiction (Series)
Weekly Commentary (Updated June 22, 2023): Netflix’s “Harry & Meghan” and HBO’s “100 Foot Wave” look to have the buzz at the moment. FX’s “Dear Mama: The Saga of Afeni and Tupac Shakur” and CNN’s “The Last Movie Stars” are critical darlings on the circuit and are in the discussion.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
It’s a competitive race with room for surprises.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
2022 winner — “The Beatles: Get Back” (Disney+)
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Harry & Meghan” (Netflix)
- “100 Foot Wave” (HBO)
- “The Last Movie Stars” (CNN)
- “The U.S. and the Holocaust” (PBS)
- “Dear Mama: The Saga of Afeni and Tupac Shakur” (FX)
Next in Line
- “The 1619 Project” (Hulu)
- “Murdaugh Murders: A Southern Scandal” (Netflix)
- “MH370: The Plane That Disappeared” (Netflix)
- “Stolen Youth: Inside the Cult at Sarah Lawrence” (Hulu)
- “The Secrets of Hillsong” (FX)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “American Masters” (PBS)
- “Secrets of the Elephants” (National Geographic)
- “Mind Over Murder” (HBO)
- “Menudo: Forever Young” (HBO)
- “Full Swing” (Netflix)
- “Surviving R. Kelly Part III: The Final Chapter” (Lifetime)
- “30 for 30” (ESPN)
- “Chimp Empire” (Netflix)
- “Voices Rising: The Music of Wakanda Forever” (Disney+)
- “Boys in Blue” (Showtime)
All Other Eligible Titles (Alphabetical Order)
“The Anarchists” (HBO); “The Bermuda Triangle: Into Cursed Waters” (History); “Biography: WWE Legends” (A&E); “The BMF Documentary: Blowing Money Fast” (Starz); “Branson” (HBO); “Chef’s Table: Pizza” (Netflix); “The Children of the Underground” (FX); “Colosseum” (History); “Conversations with a Killer: The Jeffrey Dahmer Tapes” (Netflix); “Cosmic Love” (Prime Video); “Edge of the Unknown with Jimmy Chin” (National Geographic); “Ed Sheeran: The Sum of It All” (Disney+); “FDR” (History); “Forever Summer: Hamptons” (Prime Video); “God Forbid: The Sex Scandal That Brought Down a Dynasty” (Hulu); “The Grand Tour: A Scandi Flick” (Prime Video); “Inmate to Roommate” (A&E); “Keep Sweet: Pray and Obey” (Netflix); “Light & Magic” (Disney+); “The Murder Inc Story” (BET); “The One That Got Away” (Prime Video); “Origins of Hip Hop” (A&E); “Pepsi, Where’s My Jet?” (Netflix); “RapCaviar Presents” (Hulu); “Untold: The Girlfriend Who Didn’t Exist” (Netflix); “The Vow Part III” (HBO)
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Documentary of Nonfiction (Special)
Weekly Commentary: Michael J. Fox, Pamela Anderson, Judy Blume, Robert Downey Jr, Selena Gomez and Lizzo are in a competitive race for outstanding documentary (special).
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
National Geographic’s “Wild Life” from “Free Solo” directors Jimmy Chin and Chai Vasarhelyi is a wonderful tribute to conservationists Kris and Doug Tompkins.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
2022 winner — “George Carlin’s American Dream” (HBO)
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Pamela: A Love Story” (Netflix)
- “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple TV+)
- “Judy Blume Forever” (Prime Video)
- “The Volcano: Rescue From Whakaari” (Netflix)
- “If These Walls Could Sing” (Disney+)
Next in Line
- “Pretty Baby: Brooke Shields” (Hulu)
- “Being Mary Tyler Moore” (HBO)
- “Sidney” (Apple TV+)
- “Sr.” (Netflix)
- “Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me” (Apple TV+)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Love to Love You: Donna Summer” (HBO)
- “The Princess” (HBO)
- “Love, Lizzo” (HBO)
- “Bama Rush” (HBO)
- “The Sound of 007” (Prime Video)
- “The New York Times Presents The Sin Eater: The Crimes of Anthony Pellicano” (FX)
- “Music Box: Jason Isbell: Running With Our Eyes Closed” (HBO)
- “Pelosi in the House” (HBO)
- “American Pain” (HBO)
- “Great White Open Ocean” (Discovery+)
All Other Eligible Titles (Alphabetical Order)
“Director by Night” (Disney+); “Obi-Wan Kenobi: A Jedi’s Return” (Disney+); “100 Years of Warner Bros.” (HBO); “Right to Offend” (A&E); “Stutz” (Netflix); “Til Death Do Us Part Kourtney & Travis” (Hulu); “The Torso Killer Confessions” (A&E); “Untrapped: The Story of Lil Baby” (Prime Video); “Unzipped: An Autopsy of American Inequality” (Grainey); “Willow: Behind the Magic” (Disney+)
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special
Weekly Commentary: CNN could dominate this category with three high-profile contenders — “Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy,” “United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell” and “Eva Longoria: Searching for Mexico.” Will they be able to get all three recognized?
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
It may be difficult with Showtime’s “Vice” and Netflix’s “Somebody Feed Phil” in the running.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
2022 winner — “Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy” (CNN)
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy” (CNN)
- “United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell” (CNN)
- “My Next Guest with David Letterman and Volodymyr Zelenskyy” (Netflix)
- “Vice” (Showtime)
- “Somebody Feed Phil” (Netflix)
Next in Line
- “Prehistoric Planet 2” (Apple TV+)
- “Taste the Nation with Padma Lakshmi” (Hulu)
- “Eva Longoria: Searching for Mexico” (CNN)
- “The Reluctant Traveler with Eugene Levy” (Apple TV+)
- “The Light We Carry: Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey” (Netflix)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “SmartLess: On the Road” (HBO)
- “Rainn Wilson and the Geography of Bliss” (Peacock)
- “Great White Open Ocean” (Discovery)
- “Gutsy” (Apple TV+)
- “Limitless With Chris Hemsworth” (National Geographic)
- “Now Hear This (Great Performances)” (PBS)
- “Rennervations” (Disney+)
- “Restaurants at the End of the World” (National Geographic)
- “History’s Greatest Heists with Pierce Brosnan” (History)
- “History’s Greatest Mysteries” (History)
All Other Eligible Titles (Alphabetical Order)
“The Hair Tales” (Hulu); “Planet Sex With Cara Delevingne” (Hulu)
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Exceptional Merit
Weekly Commentary: A juried category but this is where the most buzzy films bubble to the top. The former Oscar contenders such as IFC’s “Bad Axe,” HBO’s “Moonage Daydream” and Paramount’s “Last Flight Home” are beloved.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
It’s unknown how many films are in the jury-decided category.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
Nomination voting is now open to the 20,000+ members of the Television Academy. The first round of voting ends on June 26 at 10 p.m. PT. The official nominees will be announced on Tuesday, July 12. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, produced by Jesse Collins Entertainment, are (tentatively scheduled pending the outcome of the WGA strike) on Monday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Fox. The two-night Creative Arts Emmys are scheduled for Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
2022 winner — “When Claude Got Shot” (PBS)
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Moonage Daydream” (HBO)
- “Last Flight Home” (Paramount+)
- “Bad Axe” (AMC)
- “The Territory” (National Geographic)
- “Katrina Babies” (HBO)
Next in Line
- “Aftershock” (Hulu)
- “Descendant” (Netflix)
- “American Experience: Taken Hostage” (PBS)
- “Sam Now” (PBS)
- “Algiers, America” (Hulu)
- “Afghan Dreamers” (Paramount+)
- “Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down” (CNN)
- “Wild Life” (National Geographic)
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.